Trump tariff revenues reached $29.6B in July. Has it peaked? | investingLive
The Trump tariff revenues reached $29.6B in July which was a billion or two more than the $28B collected in June. Tariff revenues rose steadily from $17.4 billion in April to $23.9 billion in May, before climbing to $28 billion in June.
At $29.6B running rate (call it $30B per month), that would reach $360B for the year. That is more collected than ever, but it is not the $700B that Commerce Sec. Lutnick touted on Sunday news shows back at the end of July.
Pinochio?
Goldman over the weekend, estimated that:
- 64% is being paid by US companies
- 22% by US consumers
- 14% by others(? – maybe by foreign company lowering their prices)
Can that mix continue keeping inflation lower?
It can, and if other inflation moves lower, the door could open for the Fed to cut rates going forward. Fed’s Bowman sees three cuts between now and the end of the year.
For companies to eat the 64%, they will need to find it somewhere. Increasing efficiency, cutting payroll are some ways. For the consumer, it cost more for imported goods, but will services prices go down and soften the blow? Of course it does not impact all goods. According to a Federal Reserve analysis, imports account for about 11% of total U.S. consumer spending, and this figure has been stable for over a decade.
BTW… My wife and I wanted something for lunch on Saturday while we did some errands. So I suggested McDonalds as time was limited (we do not go there often). For a two cheeseburger meal (which we split) it came to $12.30. Wow.
The average tariff rate moved down after August 1 suggesting the US may have we peaked in tariff revenue?
Anyway, getting to $700B might be difficult. We will see..