The USD is little changed to start the new trading day. | investingLive
The USD is little changed after the historic meeting with Trump/Putin was a disaapointment with no cease-fire attained. There is no future date set for any meetings with Russian officials.
The Fed’s Powell will highlight the events this week when he speaks on Friday at the Jackson Hole Summit at 10 AM ET. The Fed Chair has been quiet since the surprise employment data on August 1. The expectation for a September cut which was 100% (with 6% or so looking for 50 basis point cut) before the inflation data last week is now down to 83%. There is
Although a Russian meeting is not scheduled, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy (and other European leaders) will meet with Pres Trump in Washington on Monday to discuss potential peace terms, though concerns remain that Trump may pressure him into a settlement favorable to Russia.
Zelensky has rejected proposals floated by Putin at a recent Alaska summit that would cede parts of Donetsk, insisting any deal must involve Russia ending the war it began. Flanked by European leaders, Zelensky is pushing for a swift resolution, while Trump has suggested Ukraine could “end the war almost immediately” if it chooses. Analysts note the situation remains fluid, though markets saw little fallout from the Trump-Putin talks, which lacked major breakthroughs like a ceasefire or sweeping tariffs on China.
The economic calendar is limited with NAHB housing market data to be released at 10 AM with estimate of 34 versus 33 last month. Canada housing starts will be released at a 15 with expectations of 265.0 versus 283.7 last month.
Looking at the EURUSD technicals, the price has moved lower after trying to extend above a swing area between 1.1692 to 1.1703. The inability to get and stay above that area led to increase momentum to the downside on the break. The price has been able to get below its 100 hour moving average 1.16824, but has fallen short of the 200 hour moving average and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the July high at 1.16615 (Green line on the chart below).
Getting below that level is needed to increase the bearish bias. Note that on Thursday of last week, the price tried to get below the 200 hour moving average but found support against the high of a swing area near 1.16309. If sellers are to take control, they need to stay below the 200 hour moving average the low from last Thursday will be the next target.
The USDJPY has been mired in an up and down trading range as the markets struggle with the news and uncertainty. Looking at the four-hour chart, the price last week traded above and below its 200 bar moving average (Green line on the chart below currently at 147.316). That move also took the price back below the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 trading range at 147.135. The inability to keep the follow-through selling sent the price up to retest its 100 bar moving average near 147.892, but sellers leaned near that level (blue line on the chart below). Staying below the 100 bar moving average is somewhat bearish, but not being able to get and stay below the 200 bar moving average is a disappointment. Also the broken 38.2% retracement needs to be broken and remain broken to give the Bears/sellers the control.
Overall the price action is misbehaving. That says to me that the market just does not know which way the market wants to go.
Looking at the US stock market in premarket trading, the major indices are mixed
- Dow industrial average +14.88 points
- S&P index -4.8 points
- NASDAQ index -33 points
Looking at the US yields are lower with a flatter yield curve:
- 2-year yield 3.748%, pop -1.1 basis points
- 5-year yield 3.822%, -2.3 basis points.
- 10 year yield 4.298%, -3.0 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.894%, -3.0 basis points