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Silver struggles for direction near $38.00 amid rising yields and geopolitical jitters

  • Silver trades flat near $38.00 on Monday, pressured by a firm US Dollar and rising Treasury yields.
  • Caution prevails ahead of the Trump–Zelenskyy meeting, with Silver underpinned by lingering uncertainty following the inconclusive Trump-Putin talks.
  • Silver remains range-bound below $38.50, with a double-top pattern and converging moving averages signaling fading momentum.

Silver (XAG/USD) is treading water around $38.00 on Monday, as traders stay on the sidelines ahead of a key meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. A firm US Dollar and rising Treasury yields are capping upside potential, keeping pressure on the non-yielding metal.

The benchmark 10-year yield has climbed to 4.345% and the 30-year stands at 4.946%, both trading at 11-day highs. The rise in yields is pressuring precious metals by raising the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like Silver.

From a technical standpoint, Silver is hovering just above the neckline of a bearish double-top formation that has developed in the $38.50-$39.00 region. The pattern highlights persistent rejection from key resistance, suggesting that upside momentum is losing steam. A decisive break below the horizontal support at $37.50 could open the door for a deeper pullback toward $36.50 and possibly $35.50. The 21-period and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on the 4-hour chart are converging near current price levels, further signaling consolidation and waning directional bias.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 mark, offering no strong directional signals, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is showing a flat bias, with the MACD and signal lines showing early signs of converging around the zero line. This setup reinforces the view that the metal is currently in a consolidation phase, with neither bulls nor bears asserting control decisively.

That said, the downside remains cushioned for now, as broader market sentiment turns cautious ahead of the Trump–Zelenskyy summit scheduled for later today. This comes after the weekend summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to deliver a breakthrough. While no ceasefire agreement was reached, discussions around potential security guarantees for Ukraine offered a glimmer of hope for future progress. The high-level talks are drawing increased global attention, with several European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, expected to join today’s White House discussions, underscoring the geopolitical weight of the meeting.

On the other hand, expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting are offering some support to Silver prices. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in the likelihood of a rate cut at 84%, reinforcing the view that the Fed could begin easing policy as early as next month. A dovish shift would typically weigh on the US Dollar and Treasury yields, creating a more favorable backdrop for non-yielding assets like Silver. Traders will also look ahead to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes for insight into the Fed’s internal debate, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday will be closely watched for fresh clues on the timing and scope of future rate moves.