Gold at record highs: Can prices really touch Rs 1.20 lakh by 2025-end?
The move reflects heightened optimism among investors as expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut strengthened, while geopolitical tensions and domestic currency weakness added further momentum.
Analysts say the rally is being fueled by a mix of macroeconomic uncertainties, central bank signals, and safe-haven demand.
Gold hit a record high above $3,550 (Rs 1,05,000), as increased bets on a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month lifted bullion’s allure. Silver also climbed to a record high, trading above $41.5 (Rs 1,22,500).
According to Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, “Demand for safe havens has increased as a result of President Trump’s historic attempt to oust Governor Lisa Cook, which has sparked worries about the loss of central bank authority.”
The near-term drivers have aligned strongly in favor of gold, with investors repositioning ahead of key U.S. labor market data later this week.Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst – Currencies & Commodities at Reliance Securities, noted that “Gold prices climbed toward $3,480/oz, nearing a record high as investors weighed the future of the Federal Reserve and uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs… MCX Gold is hitting an all-time high amid a weak rupee, which has also fallen to a record low near 88.30/$.”Looking ahead, both analysts maintain a bullish stance. Chainani highlighted that “the current environment of loose monetary policy, high geopolitical tensions, and tariff uncertainty is fueling the gold rally. If macroeconomic risks remain elevated, gold prices could feasibly target $3,700 (~Rs 1.10 lakh) in the next few weeks in September and $4,000 (~Rs 1.20 lakh) in the next few months by the end of 2025.”
Further, Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities stated, “In the short term, elevated volatility and currency weakness may keep prices buoyant, with targets near Rs 1,07,000, while over the longer horizon, persistent global uncertainties and accommodative central bank policies could drive gold towards Rs 1,12,000.”
Gold prices are trading firm as the weakness in the rupee and rising Comex prices continue to fuel buying interest, with added support from safe-haven demand amid India–US trade tariff tensions, along with Russia-Ukraine war issues, Israel-Hamas continued issues, and Trade Tariff uncertainty, which are globally keeping the safe-haven demand growing.
With both global and domestic triggers pointing upward, investors appear poised for more record-setting sessions in bullion as the market navigates a rare mix of political, economic, and monetary crosscurrents.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)