What are analysts saying ahead of the US CPI report later today? | investingLive

Let’s dive straight into it.

Citi
– Core CPI at +0.31% m/m
– “Details even more indicative of slowing
underlying inflation.”
– “Services and shelter inflation should continue slowing, and strength should be more
clearly concentrated in core goods categories impacted by tariffs.”

Deutsche
– Core CPI at +0.32% m/m
– “At the component level, we will mainly be looking for continued signs of tariff impacts in core goods
categories.”
– “We expect continued strength in those which have shown signs of tariff effects over the
last couple months as well as a potential expansion in inflationary pressures out to apparel.”

Goldman Sachs
– Core CPI at +0.36% m/m
– “We have penciled in upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed,
such as communication, household furnishings, and recreation, worth +0.14% on core inflation.”
– Headline monthly inflation penciled in at +0.37% m/m, boosted by higher food (+0.35%) and energy (+0.6%) prices
– “Over the next few months, we expect tariffs to continue to boost monthly inflation and forecast monthly
core CPI inflation around 0.3%.”
– “Aside from tariff effects, we expect underlying trend inflation to fall further,
reflecting shrinking contributions from the housing rental and labor markets.”

ING
– Core CPI at +0.3% m/m
– “Likely to be more evidence of goods price inflation being
triggered by tariffs, but remember that core goods – items most vulnerable to tariff impact – are only 19%
by weight of the inflation basket.”
– “Housing costs are 33% by weight, and there is likely to be more evidence
of softening rents.”

Nomura
– Core CPI at +0.34% m/m
– The biggest contributor will come from core goods inflation, estimated at +0.48% – the fastest rise since June 2022
– “We expect non-auto goods prices continued to increase at a strong pace due to higher tariffs.”
– “Supercore inflation likely decelerated as a boost from higher dental service prices and airline
fares waned.”

Wells Fargo
– Core CPI at +0.29% m/m
– Should see “sticky services inflation alongside a rebound in goods prices”
– Core goods inflation should rise to +0.25% m/m on new vehicle inflation, apparel
– Core services inflation should rise to +0.30% m/m on “travel-related service prices”