S&P 500 Technical Analysis Still Bullish at the End of September | investingLive

Before we dive into the technical analysis video of today for the S&P 500, the main story for markets is policy from the Federal Reserve. The Fed cut interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 4.00%–4.25% and said more cuts could come in 2025 and 2026. Lower rates are usually good for stocks because money becomes cheaper. But government bond yields have gone up, which shows many investors are not fully convinced inflation will fall quickly. At the same time, US growth was stronger than expected and fewer people filed for jobless claims, which means the economy is still healthy. Together, this creates a “push and pull” for markets — good growth on one side, but questions about future rate moves on the other.

Politics and trade are also important. New talk of wider tariffs on technology goods like semiconductors could hurt some of the biggest companies in the S&P 500. This could mean higher costs or supply problems in the future. Oil prices are moving higher, the US dollar is firm, and there is also a possible US government shutdown risk next week. Any of these can add extra short-term volatility for stocks.

For new investors, the message is simple: the overall picture is mixed but not negative. Rate cuts are helpful, strong growth is a cushion, and earnings forecasts are still positive. But traders will watch closely how bond yields react, how the tariff debate develops, and if a shutdown can be avoided. The S&P 500 technical picture will then show where the next moves could come.

Recent headlines also matter for global risk sentiment. Gold continues to sizzle, which means investors are looking for safety, usually a risk-off signal. On the other hand, HSBC forecasts 17–20% upside in China equities by 2026, which gives a longer-term risk-on view for global stocks if China improves. Geopolitical news is mixed: Trump and Netanyahu near Gaza peace agreement is risk-on, while stronger pressure around Taiwan is risk-off for tech. And with several Fed speakers on Monday, markets will get more signals on where US rates may go next.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The broader market structure is still defined by a major channel visible on the weekly chart. This channel is anchored by several key touch points, including the January 2022 all-time high, which held for nearly two years before being retested in December 2023. That level later acted as support during the sharp tariff-related dip in April 2025, underscoring its importance as a long-term pivot zone. In short, the current chart story connects back to those historical highs and lows — they are not just lines on a chart, but cornerstones of the market’s technical roadmap.

Zooming into the four-hour chart, the focus shifts to a futures contract rollover that created a visible gap when the September contract moved to December. Gaps like this often become magnets for price, and last Thursday the S&P 500 E-mini futures retested that gap almost perfectly. This area is a natural point where many short sellers close positions, which creates buying pressure as positions are covered.

Looking forward, there are two main possibilities. The market could turn this area into a distribution pattern, such as an ascending wedge that later breaks down. Or it could consolidate here before pushing higher into fresh all-time highs. At the moment, there is no clear bearish reversal signal, only early signs of potential weakness. Given that the index is already up nearly 0.38% from Friday’s close, it is reasonable to expect a test of the upper boundary of the long-term channel, with the chance of setting new highs above the 52-week peak at 6,756.75.

Always remember: trade S&P 500 futures at your own risk.

S&P 500 Futures Technical Analysis Video

Below is the video walkthrough of this analysis, showing the weekly channel, the key pivot levels from 2022 and 2023, and the recent contract rollover gap that traders are watching closely.

This analysis reflects an opinion and should not be taken as financial advice. Trading the S&P 500, whether through futures or ETFs, carries risk and should be approached with caution. Always use your own judgment when applying any form of S&P 500 technical analysis, as market conditions can change quickly. For additional insights, charts, and expert perspectives on the S&P 500 and other global markets, visit investinglive.com, formerly forexlive.com.