S&P Manufacturing PMI declines to 51.9 in November, Composite PMI rises to 54.8 | FXStreet

US S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 54.8 in November’s flash estimate from 54.6 in October, showing that the business activity in the US’ private sector continued to expand at an accelerating pace.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.9 from 52.5 in this period, while the Services PMI improved to 55.0 from 54.8.

Assessing the survey’s findings, “the flash PMI data point to a relatively buoyant US economy in November, signalling annualised GDP growth of about 2.5% so far in the fourth quarter,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, and added:

“Although jobs continued to be created in November, the rate of hiring continues to be constrained by worries over costs, in turn linked to tariffs. Both input costs and selling prices rose at increased rates in November, which will be of concern to the inflation hawks.”

Market reaction to US S&P PMI data

The US Dollar Index showed no immediate reaction to this report and was last seen trading unchanged on the day at 100.22.

US Dollar Price This week

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.95%	0.55%	1.38%	0.58%	1.55%	1.47%	1.61%
EUR	-0.95%		-0.28%	0.79%	-0.35%	0.58%	0.54%	0.67%
GBP	-0.55%	0.28%		0.84%	-0.07%	0.87%	0.82%	0.96%
JPY	-1.38%	-0.79%	-0.84%		-0.77%	0.18%	0.10%	0.20%
CAD	-0.58%	0.35%	0.07%	0.77%		0.97%	0.89%	1.03%
AUD	-1.55%	-0.58%	-0.87%	-0.18%	-0.97%		-0.04%	0.09%
NZD	-1.47%	-0.54%	-0.82%	-0.10%	-0.89%	0.04%		0.14%
CHF	-1.61%	-0.67%	-0.96%	-0.20%	-1.03%	-0.09%	-0.14%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

This section below was published as a preview of the US S&P Global PMI data at 08:00 GMT.

The S&P Global flash PMIs for November are expected to show expansion continued in the month.
The employment and inflation sub-indices will attract attention in the aftermath of the government shutdown.
EUR/USD bounced from its recent lows, USD could recover its bullish poise with upbeat data.

S&P Global will release on Friday the November flash Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) for most major economies, including the United States (US). These surveys of top private sector executives provide an early indication of the business sector’s economic health.

Market participants anticipate that the Global Services PMI will print at 54.8, matching the October reading, while Global Manufacturing output is expected to print at 52, slightly below the 52.5 reading of the previous month. Finally, it is worth noting that the Composite PMI printed at 54.6 in October.

The US is coming from the longest government shutdown in its history, which means little macroeconomic data has been released in the last couple of months. Indeed, the country kick-started reporting on Thursday, but offered the September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which showed the economy added 119,000 new positions in the month, better than the 50,000 expected. The Unemployment Rate increased to 4.4%, worse than the previous 4.3%, although the Participation Rate increased from 62.3% to 62.4%, partially offsetting the uptick in the unemployment rate. As a result, markets turned optimistic, with the US Dollar (USD) under mild near-term selling pressure.

Still, the market’s hunger for economic-related data ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) December monetary policy meeting could see the S&P Global PMIs having a wider-than-usual impact on the US Dollar (USD).

S&P Global separately reports manufacturing activity and services activity through the Manufacturing PMI and the Services PMI. Additionally, they present a weighted combination of the two, the Composite PMI. Generally speaking, a reading of 50 or more indicates expansion, while below the threshold, the indexes indicate contraction.

The report has two versions, a preliminary estimate and a final revision, which comes around two weeks later. These preliminary versions or flash estimates tend to have a broader impact on the US Dollar.

What can we expect from the next S&P Global PMI report?

The anticipated figures, while below the previous ones on the manufacturing sector, still indicate healthy economic progress in the world’s largest economy.

With that in mind, figures in line with expectations will be viewed as positive news, particularly in relation to the Manufacturing PMI. Upbeat numbers could boost the market’s optimism and temporarily weigh on the USD demand, but had no material impact on the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy decision, unless the figures are extremely disappointing, an unlikely scenario.

Beyond the headline readings, the reports include sub-indices on employment and inflation, closely watched by market players. In this particular case, the figures could have a more relevant impact than the headline figure, as inflation and employment levels are at the centre of the Fed’s decision. Much worse-than-anticipated data should result in renewed speculation of a Fed cut in December, resulting in a weaker USD across the FX board.

When will the November flash US S&P Global PMIs will be released and how could they affect EUR/USD?

The S&P Global Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs reports will be released at 14:45 GMT on Friday, and as previously noted, are expected to show that US business activity continued to expand in November.

Ahead of the release, the USD is shedding ground against most major rivals amid a risk-on environment following the September NFP report.

Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst, notes: “The EUR/USD pair bounced modestly from near the 1.1500 level posted early on Thursday, as risk appetite undermines demand for the Greenback in the near-term. On a weekly basis, however, the pair remains on the bearish side.”

Bednarik adds: “Technical readings in the daily chart suggest EUR/USD could extend its slide. A bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently providing dynamic resistance at around 1.1570, while extending its slide below a flat 100 SMA, usually a sign of mounting selling pressure. At the same time, the Momentum indicator heads nowhere around its midline, in line with the recent absence of directional strength. Support lies at 1.1470 ahead of the 1.1400 region, where the pair met buyers in July. Gains beyond the aforementioned 1.1570 expose the 1.1630 price zone, with additional gains unlikely in the current scenario.”

US Dollar FAQs

The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.

The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Services PMI

The S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US services sector. As the services sector dominates a large part of the economy, the Services PMI is an important indicator gauging the state of overall economic conditions. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

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