Gold prices steady at Rs 1.30 lakh. Will it break above the Rs 1.31 lakh resistance, given the cautious global cues?

Gold prices in Delhi were unchanged on Wednesday at Rs 1,30,770 per 10 grams for 24-karat purity, holding steady even as global markets turned cautious ahead of key U.S. economic data. Prices for 22-karat gold were flat as well at Rs 1,19,890 per 10 grams. In the retail market, 24-karat gold stood at Rs 13,099.06 per gram, while silver was quoted at Rs 180.62 per gram.

The muted domestic tone followed a similar trend globally, where spot gold held at $4,207.43 per ounce after a 1% decline in the previous session. U.S. gold futures edged 0.5% higher to $4,239.50 as investors positioned cautiously before the release of the ADP jobs report and delayed September PCE data — both crucial inputs for shaping expectations around a possible Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

“Gold and silver remained highly volatile, recovering from the day’s lows but ending slightly weaker. Expectations of further Fed easing supported sentiment as recent US data indicated mild economic softness, raising the probability of a rate cut next week to nearly 90%. Speculation about Kevin Hassett potentially replacing Jerome Powell as Fed chair also added a dovish tone. Markets now await the ADP jobs report and delayed September PCE data for policy cues, while US Treasury yields eased after an earlier rise driven by a global bond sell-off. Gold has support at $4175-4145 while resistance at $4270-4295. Silver has support at $57.70-56.85 while resistance is at $58.95-59.45. In INR gold has support at Rs1,28,650-1,27,850 while resistance at Rs1,30,450-1,31,100. Silver has support at Rs1,80,750-1,79,200 while resistance at Rs1,82,810, 1,83,670.”

Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, said bullion “remained highly volatile, recovering from the day’s lows but ending slightly weaker.” He noted that expectations of further Fed easing continued to guide sentiment as “recent US data indicated mild economic softness, raising the probability of a rate cut next week to nearly 90%.”Adding to the dovish undertone, he said, was political speculation: “Speculation about Kevin Hassett potentially replacing Jerome Powell as Fed chair also added a dovish tone.” Kalantri added that U.S. Treasury yields had eased after an earlier rise “driven by a global bond sell-off.”
For near-term levels, Kalantri places global gold support at $4,175-4,145 and resistance at $4,270-4,295. In India, he sees gold support at Rs 1,28,650-1,27,850, with resistance at Rs 1,30,450-1,31,100, the zone traders are now watching closely. Silver support stands at Rs 1,80,750-1,79,200 and resistance at Rs 1,82,810-1,83,670.

Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, said “silver stole the limelight again on Monday, extending the strong momentum from Friday’s 6% surge,” driven by decade-low Chinese inventories, supply-tightness concerns, elevated borrowing costs and heavy ETF demand. Global silver ETFs saw inflows of 9.7 million ounces last week, taking year-to-date additions to 113.4 million ounces, she noted.

Chainwala added that gold had briefly touched a six-week high of $4,264 per ounce earlier this week, supported by rising expectations of a U.S. interest-rate cut. “CME data indicate markets now assign nearly an 87% probability to a December cut,” she said. However, gold “eased to $4,220 on profit-taking,” while silver slipped 2% to $57.2 as traders paused for breath after a six-day rally and awaited fresh U.S. data.

With domestic gold prices hovering near the upper end of Kalantri’s resistance band at Rs 1,31,100, traders will now look to U.S. macro data for directional cues. A stronger-than-expected reading could curb expectations of a December Fed rate cut, while softer numbers may push bullion higher. Silver and crude volatility also remain key variables shaping broader sentiment across commodities.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)