Copper’s bull run not over yet: After 60% surge in 2025, all eyes on 2026 outlook as analysts predict further upside
After a record-setting 2025, copper has entered 2026 with heightened expectations and a bullish undertone. The metal’s nearly 60% rally last year has laid a strong foundation, but analysts believe the real story may just be unfolding.
With structural supply deficits intensifying, demand from the energy transition accelerating, and China’s infrastructure push regaining momentum, 2026 could emerge as a pivotal year for copper.
Experts are now looking beyond the historic gains of 2025 to what lies ahead in a market where fundamentals remain firmly supportive.
While short-term corrections are not ruled out, the long-term narrative remains intact and, according to some, the metal may still have another 30 to 35% upside in store. Copper is no longer just riding on past momentum but is shaping up to be a key commodity to watch in 2026.
On Friday, MCX copper January futures contracts were also trading in the green, rising by 1.56% or Rs 20.15 to Rs 1,312.65 per kg.
For the first time ever, copper prices surpassed Rs 1,300 on MCX and crossed $12,500 per metric tonne on the London Metal Exchange during the year. Analysts described the metal’s breakout as significant, especially considering the broader volatility in global manufacturing activity.
According to Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research, copper’s strong performance last year sets the stage for further gains, with fresh targets eyed for 2026.
2025 rally defied global headwinds
Copper’s surge came despite a slowdown in Chinese demand and a challenging year for global manufacturing PMI readings. Jain noted that industrial metals largely traded in a tight range during the first half of 2025, weighed down by concerns around trade tariffs and soft global consumption.
However, sentiment reversed in the second half following interest rate cuts by major global central banks, which sparked a broad recovery in industrial commodities.
Domestically, copper found support from a weaker rupee and falling warehouse inventories. As per the latest LME warehouse data, total copper stock stood at 147,425 metric tonnes as of December 31, 2025, marking a consistent decline through the year.
In addition, copper was added to the critical minerals list by the US in 2025, further boosting its appeal amid growing supply concerns.
What could drive copper prices in 2026?
According to Jain, several macro and technical factors remain in favour of copper in the coming months. The dollar index has been on a downward trajectory, interest rates are expected to remain low, and Chinese stimulus efforts could help revive global industrial demand. These tailwinds are expected to extend support to copper and other base metals in 2026.
Technically, copper has broken above key levels on both global and domestic charts. “Copper has crossed its resistance level of Rs 1,200 on the MCX and is trading above Rs 1,070 with RSI above 80,” Jain said.
He also pointed out that the MACD is showing a positive crossover on monthly charts, suggesting momentum remains strong. However, he cautioned that the metal is trading in the overbought zone and may consolidate in the short term before the next leg of the rally.
Copper price target and strategy
Jain expects copper prices to test Rs 1,440, Rs 1,550, and Rs 1,660 on the MCX over the coming months. This implies a potential upside of up to 36% from the upper end of his suggested buy range.
For traders, he recommends accumulating copper in the Rs 1,220 to Rs 1,180 range with a stop loss at Rs 1,066 on a weekly closing basis.
In the global markets, Jain projects that copper could test $15,500 to $16,000 per metric tonne on the LME, with $10,400 acting as strong support.
He believes the bullish structure remains intact as long as these key levels hold, supported by tightening supplies and stable to rising industrial demand globally.
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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)