USD/CAD will remain an intriguing pair in the next few days
Oil and a heavy economic calendar for the Canadian dollar
USD/CAD has risen in four straight days this week on falling commodity prices, risk aversion and a broad dollar bid.
What comes next is a heavy dose of fundamental news. That starts tomorrow with the June jobs report. With non-farm payrolls already reported, Canada gets the spotlight to itself and the consensus is for 195K new jobs and unemployment to tumble to 7.7% from 8.2%.
That will be followed by the Bank of Canada decision next Wednesday. Expectations are still forming for it but a taper is in the cards and there’s plenty of debate about how large it will be. With the CAD trade suddenly thinned out and the BOC attuned to inflation/housing risks, there’s a chance for a larger surprise.
Technically, I’m not sure we got close enough to the range of resistance from 1.2630-1.2655 but the high today was 1.2590 so that could fudge it. I don’t love the look of the chart for loonie-lovers but if it holds here you could argue that the series of lower highs from the start of the year is intact.