UMich August US prelim consumer sentiment 70.2 vs 81.2 expected

• Prior was 81.2
• Current conditions 77.9 vs 84.5 prior
• Expectations 65.2 vs 79.0 prior
• 1-year inflation 4.6% vs 4.7% prior
• 5-10 year inflation 3.0% vs 2.8% prior

Yikes. That’s the lowest since 2011, breaking the pandemic low. That’s hard to believe. USD/JPY is under additional pressure on the release, down to 110.04. Treasury yields are falling, down 3.8 bps in 10s to 1.328%.

Here’s the commentary from survey chief economist Richard Curtin:

Consumers reported a stunning loss of confidence in the first half of
August. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell by 13.5% from July, to a
level that was just below the April 2020 low of 71.8. Over the past half
century, the Sentiment Index has only recorded larger losses in six
other surveys, all connected to sudden negative changes in the economy:
the only larger declines in the Sentiment Index occurred during the
economy’s shutdown in April 2020 (-19.4%) and at the depths of the Great
Recession in October 2008 (-18.1%). The losses in early August were
widespread across income, age, and education subgroups and observed
across all regions. Moreover, the loses covered all aspects of the
economy, from personal finances to prospects for the economy, including
inflation and unemployment. There is little doubt that the pandemic’s
resurgence due to the Delta variant has been met with a mixture of
reason and emotion. Consumers have correctly reasoned that the economy’s
performance will be diminished over the next several months, but the
extraordinary surge in negative economic assessments also reflects an
emotional response, mainly from dashed hopes that the pandemic would
soon end. In the months ahead, it is likely that consumers will again
voice more reasonable expectations, and with control of the Delta
variant, shift toward outright optimism. Consumers’ reaction to Delta’s
modestly higher precautionary measures indicates the difficulty of
producing optimal policy responses.

 There’s also this, which shows that survey is increasingly a political barometer: