USDCAD trades between recent retracement levels
50% of the last the trend move down from the October 12 high holding support (61.8% stalled the price action at the high)
The USDCAD is higher on the day after the pair broke above its 100 hour moving average (currently at 1.2370) in the early Asian session, and basing for a move higher against that MA level. Bullish.
The run to the upside did see the price break above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the October 12 swing high, and a topside trendline near 1.24089, BUT stalled against the 61.8% retracement of the same move down (a 1.24170)
The move off that high in the early North American session has taken the price back down to retest the 50% midpoint. So far that midpoint level has held support helping to keep the buyers more in control.
So traders are battling between the retracement levels, with a tilt in the buyers direction.
Taking a broader look at the hourly chart, over the last 14 trading days the USDCAD has spent the vast majority the time between 1.23097 and 1.2417. There was a few brief breaks below the lower extreme back on October 21 and again on October 27, but the price quickly rebounded. Last week, the high extreme extended above the 1.24170 level, but once again it too was short-lived.
The hourly moving averages have now nearly converged indicative of the non-trending up and down trading range. With the price moving back above those moving averages today (and the 50% level), the buyers are making a play, with more work to do at the 61.8% level.
A move back below the 50% retracement and the near converged moving averages would not be what buyers would be hoping for, and should see increased downside momentum on each successive break.