Biden restores Iran civilian nuclear sanctions relief in sign of deal progress. Watch oil

The weekly oil open will be the spot to watch after the Biden administration took a step towards thawing relations with Iran.

A group of nations are in what looks like the final stretch of negotiations towards reviving the Iran nuclear deal. The US restored a waiver that that had been rescinded by Trump in May 2020 that allowed Russian, Chinese and European companies to carry out non-proliferation work at Iranian nuclear sites.

Both sides downplayed the importance of the move.

We did NOT provide sanctions relief for Iran and WILL NOT until/unless Tehran returns to its commitments under the JCPOA. We did precisely what the last Administration did: permit our international partners to address growing nuclear nonproliferation and safety risks in Iran, tweeted State Dept spokesman Ned Price.

Iran’s foreign minister said today the steps were “good but not enough.”

“The lifting of some sanctions can, in the true sense of the word,
translate into their good will. Americans talk about it, but it should
be known that what happens on paper is good but not enough,” Hossein
Amir-Abdollahian was quoted as saying by ISNA news agency.

US officials have characterized the current timeline as the ‘final weeks’ of negotiations and there’s chatter that they hope to have a deal in two weeks.

In terms of oil, it’s unclear exactly how much Iran is currently exporting through back channels, unclear how much they have in reserve and unclear how quickly they can bring on more capacity. Some of the best guesses are around 500k barrels per day immediately and 500k bpd later this year.

Given that OPEC+ is adding 400K bpd each month and oil is marching relentlessly higher (despite the omicron drag on driving and flying) and a nuclear deal might ultimately be a dip to buy. Lately though, dips have been shallow and crude has risen for seven straight weeks.