Palm tumbles over 6% on weak outlook for exports, China lockdown fears

Malaysian palm oil futures plunged more than 6% on Wednesday due to weak July exports and as fears of renewed COVID-19 curbs in China sparked a selloff in rival Dalian oils.

The benchmark palm oil contract for September delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slid 276 ringgit, or 6.71%, to 3,840 ringgit ($866.62) a tonne by the midday break.

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks at end-June rose to their highest in seven months as its exports were throttled by rival Indonesia‘s policies to boost its own shipments, industry regulator data showed on Tuesday.

Exports from the world’s second-largest producer during July 1-10 fell between 2.7% and 21% from a month-ago period, cargo surveyors said.

“Indonesia ratcheting up production and a deceleration in demand will be a headwind for prices both in July and August,” said Paramalingam Supramaniam, director at Selangor-based brokerage Pelindung Bestari, adding there were deep concerns over maintaining the pace of demand.

“Also there are widespread rumours about the possibility of Indonesia removing its export levy of $200 per tonne,” Paramalingam said.

Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer, said last week it would consider lowering its levy to spur exports and clear rising inventories.

In key buyer China, fears of renewed lockdowns to stem a fresh COVID-19 outbreak dragged on Dalian edible oils prices.

Dalian’s most-active soyoil contract fell 6.2%, while its palm oil contract plunged 7.1%. Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade were down 1.3% after a U.S. government forecast of lower demand and higher production.

Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.

Palm oil may stabilize around a support at 3,900 ringgit per tonne, and test a resistance at 4,090 ringgit thereafter, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said.

($1 = 4.4310 ringgit)