US admin officals are scrambling to say “its not a recession!!!”

Today’s GDP data from the US confirmed the country is in recession:

IF you use the common ‘two consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage’ definition.

Not everyone uses that defintion, economists endlessly debate recession definitions. Believe me, it really is endless (and endlessly tedious IMO) … Anyway, moving on.

The US does not, officially, use the ‘two consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage’ definition. And thus the GDP data released on Thursday does not, officially, show a recession. As admin officials are shouting from the rooftops. The US has its own recession dating committee, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). They look across a number of economic indicators, including employment and industrial production, not just GDP. Given the strength in US employment the NBER will not be calling a H1 2022 recession. Additionally, there are a large number of economists expecting the Q1 (and therefore H1) figure to be revised higher in the future.

What about in quarters to come ? That’s the question. The inversion of the  yield  curve points to a real recession risk ahead. .