Just a reminder of the EURUSD downside levels to keep in mind

The EURUSD is lower, but is still above the low for the day and the 100 hour MA.

The current price is at 0.9977. The low for the day reached 0.99459. That took the price briefly below the 0.99515 level which was the low from July 14 low.

The July 14 low stalled the fall at the time and led to run up to 1.0378. The price fell below that level earlier this month on the way to a new low at 0.98992 (bid side). Call it 0.9900. A move back below 0.99515 should give sellers the go-ahead to push toward the lows for the year (and new 20 year lows).

The 100 hour MA is just above that July 14 low level at 0.99635.

Of note today is the move to the downside in the EURUSD has been somewhat buffered by a report earlier today that the ECB should consider 75 bp hike at the next meeting. Seeing that the ECB has 1 tighten of 50 BPs under it’s belt, getting some room to the upside, even if growth is on the verge of falling off a cliff may provide the shove into a dark recession. The reality is the EU is hostage to Russia. Russia needs to open the spigots for them to see a recovery. If they don’t open the spigots, there is risk of runaway inflation that monetary policy will have a tough time cracking and with it recessionary lower growth.

Meanwhile in the US, the Fed chair is ready to fight inflation to the the death but at least he/they have the benefit of a strong labor market and continued growth. That may change, but the dynamics favor the dollar even if ECB does raise by 75 basis points.