Fed’s Bullard: Have to react if inflation doesn’t fall as expected
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard left open the possibility that the central bank would raise interest rates by 75 basis points at each of its next two meetings in November and December while saying that he won’t predate what rate move he backs at the December FOMC meeting.
The Fed hiked rates by 75 basis points for the third straight meeting last month, to a target range of 3% to 3.25%. The US central bank is expected to lift rates by another 75 basis points when it meets on November 1-2, with an additional 50 or 75 basis point increase also likely in December.
Key quotes
Have to react if inflation doesn’t fall as expected.
Won’t predate what rate move he backs at the December FOMC meeting.
In 2023, if inflation starts to decline meaningfully, Fed can stay where it is at higher rate level.
First have to get to right rate level, then move to data dependency.
Sees the possibility of good inflation dynamics in 2023.
Des not appear to be a lot of financial stress now in the US economy.
Not clear that equity pricing should be the main metric of financial liquidity.
US is still in a low productivity growth regime.
He thinks US GDP will be revised higher for first half of the year at some point but too late to be useful for monetary policy.
Big negative productivity number for the first half of 2022 is ‘questionable’.
US GDP probably was really flat in the first half of the year, not negative, third quarter looks to be positive.
Fed in great shape on the employment side of the mandate, a great time to ‘nip inflation in the bud.
Fed shouldn’t react to declines in the stock market.
Inflation expectations are looking good now, at least based on tips markets.
US dollar update
As for the US dollar bounced, it has from two-week lows on Wednesday with a rise in US Treasury yields that made 14-year highs as investors maintained expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to aggressively raise rates.
The DXY index has recovered on Wednesday as follows:
DXY daily chart
The W-formation’s neckline is holding up as support and the DXY index has started to recover from a 50% mean reversion.