Another round of broad pressure hits the US dollar as bonds catch a bid | Forexlive

The dollar is falling across the board and it’s not entirely clear why. There’s some risk appetite creeping in but stocks are hardly running away with the S&P 500 up 20 points.

Bonds are bid so that adds up but the strength of the dollar move is more than what you’d expect from yields down 6 bps across the board.

To me, this is a unique USD move. Looking to the Fed, the terminal top is still at 5.09%, which isn’t far off the peak. A 50 bps hike on Dec 14 is at 67% compared to 33% of 75 bps.

Obviously, the election is happening today but there’s no clear catalyst for dollar selling there except the tail risk of some kind of disputed outcome. But that would enormously difficult to envision in both the House and the Senate.

Could this be part of the front-run of the post-election stock market rally? Maybe but why would that show up so much more strongly in the dollar than stocks? Could the dollar be an early signal for stocks?

Tech is interesting, Tesla looks to be breaking down and mega-cap tech is in a tough spot. That’s USD-centric so some money could instead be flowing into international equities.

I’d be generally cautious with this move but the dollar is the most-crowded trade in the world so it doesn’t take much to spark a shift to the exits.