Is there more to the jobs picture? The household survey has been flat since March | Forexlive

If we would be seeing that in the establishment survey, we wouldn’t be talking about hikes going above 5%.

What’s interesting is that the entire drop in non-farm household survey employment was due to self-employed and unpaid family
workers.

That reminds me that self employment surged early in the pandemic and we’ve now passed the two-year mark beyond it. That’s when most businesses fail. The reversion of self employment would also help to explain strength in the establishment survey. What could be happening is that workers who were self employed are leaving those ventures (not captured in the establishment survey) and returning to normal jobs (something that is captured in the establishment survey). If so, that would paint a picture of a jobs market that’s significantly weaker than what’s been portrayed and the market may be picking up on it.