Powell speech: No one knows if we are going to have a recession or not

FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell comments on the policy outlook after the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise the policy rate by 50 basis points to the range of 4.25-4.5% following the December policy meeting.

Key quotes

“Data we have received so far on inflation for October and November do show a welcome reduction in price pressures; need substantially more evidence though to be confident inflation coming down.”

“That recent data gives us greater confidence in our forecasts.”

“Inflation in non-housing services is fundamentally about the labor market and wages.”

“We see little progress in average hourly earnings coming down.”

“We will be looking for wages moving down to more normal levels.”

“Our policy is getting close to sufficiently restrictive.”

“No one knows if we are going to have a recession or not.”

“If lower inflation reports continue, that would increase likelihood of significantly less of an increase in unemployment.”

“Largest pain would come from failure to raise rates high enough.”