US January Conference Board consumer confidence 107.1 versus 109.0 expected | Forexlive

This number bottomed in July and has been trending higher but still remains far below pre-pandemic levels. It’s a much-better metric of the US consumer than the similar report from the University of Michigan.

The Fed will take some comfort in the small decline this month but is likely to be wary of a re-acceleration of spending. The weather in much of the country was unusually warm in January so today’s number could have been boosted by that, hiding more underlying weakness. Remember that December retail sales were surprisingly soft as well.

“Consumers’ assessment of present economic and labor market conditions improved at the start of 2023,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board. “However, the Expectations Index retreated in January reflecting their concerns about the economy over the next six months. Consumers were less upbeat about the short-term outlook for jobs. They also expect business conditions to worsen in the near term. Despite that, consumers expect their incomes to remain relatively stable in the months ahead. Meanwhile, purchasing plans for autos and appliances held steady, but fewer consumers are planning to buy a home—new or existing. Consumers’ expectations for inflation ticked up slightly from 6.6 percent to 6.8 percent over the next 12 months, but inflation expectations are still down from its peak of 7.9 percent last seen in June.”

The US Consumer Confidence Report from The Conference Board is a monthly survey that measures consumers’ attitudes and expectations towards the economy. It includes data on consumers’ opinions of current business and labor market conditions, as well as their expectations for the future. The report provides insight into consumer spending patterns and is used by economists and market analysts to forecast future economic activity.