BTC/USD Technical Analysis | Forexlive
On the daily chart below, we can
see that Bitcoin reached the resistance at 24245 where the price got
rejected as the very strong NFP
report triggered a repricing in interest rates expectations. Bitcoin is mainly
driven by looser financial conditions and risk sentiment.
In fact, we saw a big rally since
November as the market was pricing falling inflation and rate cuts for this year.
The stock and the bond markets saw strength and eased financial conditions.
Risk sentiment was favourable for risk assets and Bitcoin benefited from that.
Now though, the market is looking
for higher rates and rate cuts are being priced
out. This
should be bad for Bitcoin in the near future. The moving
averages are also pointing south now.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price bounced from a previous swing point at 21500.
There’s a strong resistance at
22500 where we have confluence from a trendline, previous swing levels and
50/61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level. That zone will be the last line of defence
for the sellers. If the buyers manage to breakout, we may see another rally
towards the previous high at 24245.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see more closely the levels of interest for the sellers. We may see good moves
today as US
Retail Sales data get released. The market expects positive
numbers. If the data beats expectations, we may get a sell off in Bitcoin as
now good news is bad news for risk sentiment as the market looks for higher
rates.
If the data miss expectations, we
should see the price rallying into the resistance area at 22700. That will be
the last line of defence for the sellers. For what it’s worth, neither a beat
nor a miss should be good for risk sentiment.