US Q4 2022 GDP (second reading) +2.7% vs +2.9% expected | Forexlive
- The advance reading on Q4 was +2.9% vs +2.6% expected
- Q3 was +3.2% annualized
- Personal consumption +1.4% vs +2.1% advance reading
- Core PCE prices +4.3% vs +3.9% expected
- PCE prices +3.7% vs +3.5% expected
- GDP final sales +1.2% vs +1.4% prelim
- Corporate profits after tax +% vs -% in Q1
- Consumer spending on durables +1.8% vs +0.5% advance
- Full report
Percentage point changes:
- Inventories pp +1.47 pp vs +1.46 pp in advance
- Net trade pp +0.46 vs +0.56 pp advance
- Government spending +0.63 pp vs +0.64 pp advance
- Goods -0.13 pp
- Services +1.06 pp
This isn’t a great report but the market may see it as shifting growth to Q1 2023 instead. The goods portion of the economy is in a full-on recession, with four consecutive quarter of contraction in a strong bullwhip effect from pandemic spending. Services is carrying all the weight but the momentum is slowing.
On the construction side, non-residential investment in structures is strong (+8.5%) while the residential side is plunging and business investment in equipment also sagged (albeit after a strong Q3). At the moment, the consumer and government is holding everything up. The infrastructure spending will keep the government money flowing this year but depending on a strong consumer as pent up savings run down and interest rates go up is a foolish assumption.