The message from the bond market: The Fed is going to plunge the economy into a recession | Forexlive

If I was only allowed to see a single chart it would be this one, US 10-year yields.

And if this was all I was allowed to see, I’d be worried. US 10-year yields broke below the key 3.30% zone today in what’s the fifth try at the level. So far it hasn’t definitively caved but this doesn’t look good.

So the next question is: What is the bond market saying?

I have to worry that the message here is that a hard landing is coming. Buying 10s for 3.28% implies low inflation so that’s good news but it’s a bit fanciful to think the market’s taken such a sharp turn on inflation because a soft landing is coming.

I wrote yesterday about the outlook for 2028 and how generative artificial intelligence is going to kneecap inflation so maybe that’s some of the bid but I don’t think it’s a big part. This decline in yield came after a handful of softer economic data points, which the market is taking as confirmation that the bank rout has changed the economy for the worse.

Compounding that, I think, is the belief that the Fed will be behind the curve. Policymakers are dead-set on stamping out inflation and the market is saying that they’re going to hold rates too high for too long and plunge the economy into an unduly harsh recession.