USDCHF Technical Analysis | Forexlive
On the daily chart below for the
USDCHF, we can see that the Swiss Franc has been strengthening a lot lately as
the market keeps pricing in interest rates cuts from the Fed by the end of the
year and there’s also some flight to safety as economic data recently
deteriorated markedly.
In fact, going into a recession
the CHF and the JPY generally strengthen against the USD. So, this trend lower
may be attributed to both rate cuts expectations and recession fears. The daily
moving
averages are well crossed to the downside and will act as resistance for this
downtrend. Recently, the pair broke below the February support, which is another sign that the
sellers are well in control.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the price recently spiked higher as the US
NFP data
beat once again expectations but the sellers leant on the major trendline and pushed the price back down.
The selling momentum then
intensified as the NFIB
Index data showed weakness under the hood with small businesses having a
harder time getting credit and the hiring plans keep dropping fast, which
should later translate in higher unemployment rate. Yesterday, the US
CPI has also
missed expectations for the headline figure and came in within forecasts for
the Core measure. The market is increasingly confident that the May Fed hike
will be the last one for this cycle.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that the selling momentum is really strong. The hourly moving averages are
acting as resistance for the current bearish trend, and we also have the minor
trendline that will act as resistance in case the price pulls back.
The low is getting tested, and we
may see it break if today’s US Jobless Claims miss again expectations. In case
the data beats expectations, we should see the price rally and possibly even
breaking above the trendline leading to a bigger pullback to the major
trendline.