EURUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive
On the daily chart below for
EURUSD, we can see that the buyers tried to sustain a break above the 1.1033
high multiple times but without much success. The red long period moving
average was acting as support for the pullbacks, but now the moving averages
have crossed to the downside which is a bad omen for the buyers and a good sign
for the sellers.
The price has been diverging with the MACD for a long time, which may be a
sign that the whole uptrend was based on weak bases. This may turn into a big double
top pattern
with the neckline at 1.0533, which should also be the first target for the
sellers in case we start a downtrend.
On the 4 hour chart below, we can
see that the market has been trading within a rising channel rising into the
1.1033 high. Once the price reached the high it started to range as a strong
battle between buyers and sellers ensued. We can also see that the channel was
diverging with the MACD and generally once the price breaks out, the target is
the base of the channel, which in this case is the 1.0750 level. Today, the
price is also breaking out of the range and we should start to see lower lows
and lower highs going forward.
On the 1 hour chart below, we can
see that yesterday the upward CPI spike was faded soon after. The
data was in line with expectations almost across the board with just a little
miss on the headline Y/Y figure. What is becoming evident is that the
disinflationary trend is slowing while the labour market remains tight.
If this continues or inflation
gets stuck at a higher level, the Fed may be forced to do more and a hard
landing in that case will be certain. Today, we have the US Jobless Claims
data and tomorrow the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. Strong
data should be good for the USD.
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