AUD/USD Price Analysis: Hits fresh one-month top, bulls seize control above 100-day SMA

AUD/USD gains positive traction for the third straight day and climbs to a fresh one-month high.
The RBA’s hawkish outlook and a positive risk tone push spot prices beyond the 100-day SMA.
The Fed rate hike uncertainty and economic woes might cap any meaningful upside for the pair.
Traders might also prefer to wait ahead of the US CPI on Tuesday and the FOMC on Wednesday.

The AUD/USD pair scales higher for the third successive day – also marking the seventh day of a positive move in the previous eight – and climbs to a fresh one-month high during the early European session on Monday. The pair is currently placed around the 0.6760-0.6765 region, up over 0.25% for the day, and seems to have confirmed a fresh bullish breakout through a technically significant 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to draw support from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) surprise 25 bps rate hike last week and a more hawkish policy statement. Adding to this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets act as a headwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and further benefits the risk-sensitive Aussie. That said, a modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields should lend support to the USD losses and keep a lid on the AUD/USD pair.

Furthermore, worries about a global economic slowdown, particularly in China, could contribute to limiting the downside for the Greenback and capping gains for the China-proxy AUD. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to wait for this week’s release of the crucial US consumer inflation data on Tuesday. This will be followed by the highly-anticipated FOMC decision on Wednesday, which will provide a fresh impetus to the AUD/USD pair.

The aforementioned fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 0.6800 mark before positioning for any further appreciating move. The AUD/USD pair might then accelerate the momentum towards the next relevant hurdle near the 0.6865-0.6870 horizontal zone en route to the 0.6900 round figure. Bulls might eventually aim to reclaim the 0.7000 psychological mark with some intermediate hurdle near the 0.6970-0.6975 area.

On the flip side, the 0.6735 area (100-day SMA), now seems to protect the immediate downside. This is followed by the 0.6700 mark and the very important 200-day SMA, currently around the 0.6680 region. Failure to defend the said support levels might prompt some technical selling and make the AUD/USD pair vulnerable. The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag spot prices further below the 0.6645 support, towards retesting the 0.6600 round-figure mark.