Australian Dollar hovers below the major level after upbeat Aussie inflation data
- Australian Dollar moves upward toward a major level after stronger Aussie CPI data.
- Australia’s CPI climbed to 1.2% in Q3, exceeding the market consensus of 1.1%.
- RBA is expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points at November’s meeting.
- US Dollar received upward support from upbeat PMI figures from the United States.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) boosts on higher inflation figures, trading higher for the third successive day on Wednesday. Additionally, the AUD/USD pair received strength after the hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock on Tuesday.
Australia’s Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered growth in the third quarter of 2023, surpassing the increase observed in the second quarter. The higher inflation raises the possibility of a 25 bps rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its next policy meeting on November 7.
Australia’s Chief Policymaker’s address at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia Global Markets Conference in Sydney underscored the dedication to achieving the inflation target in a sensible timeframe.
Governor Bullock hinted that the present cash rate could serve this goal adequately, Bullock recognized the potential hazards of inflation converging back to the target at a slower pace than expected. The board holds a limited tolerance for such variances and is prepared to increase rates if there’s a substantial upward adjustment to the inflation outlook.
Investors will closely monitor RBA Governor Bullock’s remarks regarding the condition of the Australian economy as she testifies before the Senate Economics Legislative Committee in Canberra on Thursday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) consolidates post-trimming recent losses on the back of upbeat preliminary S&P Global PMI figures from the United States released on Tuesday. However, the drop in US Treasury yields could provide downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD).
US economic indicators have eased concerns about the potential negative impact of a more restrictive monetary policy and increased borrowing costs on investment and industrial activities.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar extends its gains on upbeat CPI data, hawkish RBA’s comments
- Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that the nation’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 1.2% in the third quarter of 2023, surpassing the 0.8% increase recorded in the second quarter. This figure exceeded the market consensus, which anticipated a growth of 1.1% in the same period.
- Australian S&P Global Composite PMI for October declined to 47.3 from the previous reading of 51.5. Manufacturing PMI eased to 48.0 compared to the prior figure of 48.7, while the Services PMI fell back into contraction, dropping to 47.6 from the previous month’s reading of 51.8.
- Westpac’s Chief Economist, Luci Ellis stated in a note that the core view presented that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to continue tracking lower and return to the RBA’s 2-3 percent target band in 2025, aligning with the central bank’s own expectations.
- Ellis highlighted several broader risks to the economy and inflation outlook that are being closely monitored. These include the resurgence of housing prices to levels close to pre-pandemic peaks, a global rise in bond yields, and China’s slower-than-expected recovery from a prolonged period of COVID-related lockdowns.
- Australia’s central bank expressed heightened concern about the inflation impact stemming from supply shocks. Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Michele Bullock stated that if inflation persists above projections, the RBA will take responsive policy measures. There is an observable deceleration in demand, and per capita consumption is on the decline.
- China is set to host a significant financial policy meeting early next week, occurring once every five years. The primary objectives of this gathering are to proactively address and mitigate risks and to establish medium-term priorities for the expansive $61 trillion financial industry.
- US Treasury Department officially confirmed on Tuesday that the first meeting of the economic working group between the United States and China took place. This working group serves as a platform for discussing bilateral economic policy matters.
- US S&P Global Composite PMI saw an increase in October, reaching 51.0 from 50.2. The Services PMI experienced growth, reaching 50.9, while the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.0. This marks the first instance in the last six months where manufacturing has remained above the 50-point threshold, indicating a positive shift in that sector.
- The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.02%, marking its first time at such levels since 2007. However, it promptly reversed direction, standing at 4.82% by the press time.
- Market participants will likely shift their focus on monitoring the US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) and Australia’s Producer Price Index (PPI) will be eyed on Friday.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar hovers below the major resistance at 0.6400
The Australian Dollar hovers around 0.6390 on Wednesday aligned with the major resistance at 0.6400. A breakthrough above this resistance holds the potential to reach around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6429. On the downside, the immediate support emerges around the seven-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6353, following the 0.6300 major level lined up with the monthly low at 0.6285.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.07% | -0.10% | 0.02% | -0.37% | -0.01% | -0.08% | -0.04% | |
| EUR | 0.07% | -0.03% | 0.09% | -0.28% | 0.06% | -0.01% | 0.04% | |
| GBP | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.12% | -0.26% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.36% | -0.02% | -0.09% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.35% | 0.28% | 0.25% | 0.36% | 0.34% | 0.26% | 0.32% | |
| JPY | 0.01% | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.01% | -0.34% | -0.06% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | 0.08% | 0.00% | -0.03% | 0.09% | -0.28% | 0.06% | 0.03% | |
| CHF | 0.02% | -0.04% | -0.07% | 0.04% | -0.32% | 0.01% | -0.06% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.