AUDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

US

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected with basically no change to the statement.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed
  once again that they are proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy
  tightening have yet to be felt.
• The US Core PCE last
  week came in line with expectations.
• The labour market remains
  pretty resilient but we are starting to see some weakness as Jobless Claims missed
  expectations once again this week with Continuing Claims now rising at a fast
  pace.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence fell for the third consecutive month
  although the data beat expectations.
• The US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI this week missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

Australia

• The
  RBA kept interest rates unchanged as expected as they are seeing inflation
  returning to target with the current level of interest rates.
• The
  CPI report last week surprised to the upside
  prompting the market to price in a higher chance of another rate hike from the
  RBA in November.
• The
  RBA Governor Bullock downplayed the beat in the CPI data
  and made the market to pare back the rate hike bets.
• The
  labour market continues to weaken as seen also
  recently with the miss in the employment change and the losses in full-time
  employment.
• The
  Australian Manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction with
  the Services PMI plummeting back into contraction as well.
• The
  market expects the RBA to hold rates steady at the next meeting.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that following the
breakout of the key trendline, the
AUDUSD pair extended the rally towards the 0.64 handle and it’s now eyeing the resistance around
the 0.65 level. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in more
aggressively with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop back to
the lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
found a resistance at the previous swing level around 0.6445. From a risk
management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup
around the upward trendline where they will find the confluence with the
swing high support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the
trendline to invalidate the bullish setup and pile in for new lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price
bounced on the most recent higher low following the pullback from the 0.6445
resistance. The buyers are likely to increase the bullish bets in case the
AUDUSD pair continues higher and breaks above the recent high. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the higher low around
the 0.6415 level to confirm a bigger correction and target the support around
the 0.6380 level.

Upcoming Events

Today, we conclude the week with the US NFP report
and the ISM Services PMI. If the data misses expectations we are likely to see
more downside for the USD in the short-term.