EURUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected
with basically no change to the statement.
Fed Chair Powell stressed once again that they are
proceeding carefully as the full effects of policy tightening have yet to be
felt.
The recent US CPI missed expectations
across the board bringing the expectations for rate cuts forward.
The labour market is starting to show some weakness
as Continuing Claims are now rising at a fast pace and the recent NFP report
missed across the board.
The US Consumer Confidence and University
of Michigan Consumer Sentiment continue to fall.
The recent US ISM Manufacturing PMI missed
expectations by a big margin, followed by a disappointing ISM Services PMI,
although the latter remained in expansion.
The US Retail Sales yesterday beat
expectations, while the US PPI missed forecasts by a big margin.
The recent Fedspeak has been leaning on
the hawkish side, but this week’s inflation report pretty much confirmed that
the Fed might be done for the cycle.
The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.

EUR

The ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected
as the central bank has ended its tightening cycle.
President Lagarde highlighted the weakness in the
Eurozone economy and reaffirmed that rates will make a substantial contribution
to curbing inflation.
The recent Eurozone CPI missed
expectations on the headline figures, but the Core measure remained unchanged.
This is unlikely to change the ECB’s stance anyway.
The labour market remains historically tight, but
the unemployment rate recently ticked higher.
The recent Eurozone PMIs missed across the board as
the economy continues to struggle.
The market doesn’t expect the ECB to hike anymore.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

EURUSD Daily

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke
above the key resistance around the 1.0760 level following the miss in the US
CPI report. The price is now a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance
from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a
pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

EURUSD 4 hour

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk
management perspective, the buyers would be better off to wait for a pullback
into the resistance turned support around the 1.0760 level where they will also
find the confluence with the Fibonacci retracement levels, the trendline, the
red 21 moving average and the daily blue 8 moving average.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

EURUSD 1 hour

On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the bullish setup around the support with the price at the moment consolidating
around the 1.0850 level. If the price breaks above the recent higher low at
1.0867, some aggressive buyers might already pile in to target another rally
into the 1.0950 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking below the trendline to invalidate the bullish setup and switch
the bias from bullish back to bearish.