EUR/GBP: Some upside as markets keep moderating hawkish UK expectations – TDS

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The BoE is unlikely to raise Bank Rate further amid deteriorating growth conditions in the UK. Therefore, the GBP could struggle, economists at TD Securities report.

GBP downside vs. AUD with moderation in UK data

Growth expectations for the UK are starting to correct lower and a lot of the good news that had been priced into GBP has started to recede. 

Looking at market expectations of cuts over the next year, there is still more optimism on the UK vs the Euro-area, whereas we expect the BoE to lead the global cutting cycle amongst peers. Accordingly, we see some EUR/GBP upside as markets keep moderating hawkish UK expectations. 

We also like GBP lower vs. AUD and NZD where the macro outcomes don’t look as meek and where some catch-up is forthcoming.