AUDUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected while dropping the tightening bias in the statement but adding a
  slight pushback against a March rate
  cut.
• Fed Chair Powell stressed
  that they want to see more evidence of inflation falling back to target and
  that a rate cut in March is not their base case.
• The US CPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month with the disinflationary trend
  reversing.
• The US PPI beat
  expectations across the board by a big margin.
• The US Initial Claims beat
  expectations while Continuing Claims missed. Overall, the data remains steady.
• The ISM Manufacturing
  PMI
  surprised to the upside with the new orders index, which is considered a
  leading indicator, jumping back into expansion. Similarly, the ISM Services PMI beat
  expectations across the board with the employment sub-index erasing the prior
  drop and prices paid jumping above 60.
• The US Retail Sales missed
  expectations across the board by a big margin.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in June.

AUD

• The
  RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected with the central bank
  maintaining the usual tightening bias and data dependent language.
• The
  recent Monthly CPI report missed expectations across
  the board which was a welcome development for the RBA.
• The
  latest labour market report missed expectations by a big
  margin.
• The
  wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
  growth in Australia remains strong.
• The
  latest Australian PMIs improved with the Manufacturing
  measure bouncing back into expansion while the Services one remains in
  contraction.
• The
  market expects the first rate cut in June.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD broke
above a key resistance level
where we had also the red 21 moving average for confluence. The
buyers will now start targeting the next resistance at 0.6623. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the 0.6542 level
to leave behind a fakeout and position for a drop into new lows.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has
been diverging with the
MACD for
quite a while. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by
pullbacks or reversals. In this case, we got a pullback into the 0.6542 level but
given today’s breakout, we might be in front of a reversal. We can see that the
buyers kept on leaning on the red 21 moving average and if we get a pullback we
can expect them to lean on it again.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have an upward trendline
defining the current bullish trend. We can see that we got a breakout in the
APAC session, but the price reversed quickly and extended the rally to new
highs. We can also notice that the latest leg higher diverged with the MACD
which might be another bearish confluence for the sellers, but they will need
the price to break below the trendline to confirm an eventual downtrend.

Upcoming Events

This week is basically empty on the data front with just
the release of the Australian Wage data and the FOMC Meeting Minutes tomorrow
followed by the Australian and the US PMIs, and the US Jobless Claims on
Thursday.