EURUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting while dropping the tightening bias in the
  statement but adding a slight pushback against a March rate cut.
• The US CPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month with the disinflationary trend
  stalling.
• The US PPI beat
  expectations across the board by a big margin.
• The US Jobless Claims beat
  expectations with the data remaining steady.
• The latest US PMIs
  increased further from the prior month with the Manufacturing PMI beating
  expectations and the Services PMI missing.
• The US Retail Sales missed
  expectations across the board by a big margin.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in June.

EUR

• The ECB left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting maintaining the usual data dependent language.
• The recent Eurozone CPI came
  in line with expectations with the disinflationary process continuing steady.
• The labour market remains historically
  tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.
• The Eurozone PMIs beat
  expectations on the Services side with the measure jumping back into expansion
  while the Manufacturing one missed dragged lower by Germany’s performance.
• The ECB members recently have been pushing back
  against the aggressive rate cuts expectations placing more weight on wage
  growth and data dependency.
• The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD recently
broke through the key trendline and extended
the rally into the 1.09 handle. We can expect the sellers to keep on defending
the 1.09 resistance with a
defined risk above it and position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish
bets into the 1.10 handle.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
broke below the upward trendline yesterday but eventually reversed the move and
ended the day at the highs. The bullish momentum might be fading at these
levels but another extension into the 1.09 handle could still happen.
Nevertheless, the buyers should step in around the trendline to target a rally
into the resistance, while the sellers will want to see the price falling back
below the trendline to pile in and target the 1.08 support first and upon a
further break lower, the 1.02 handle.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a strong support zone around the 1.0838 level where we can also find the confluence with
the trendline and the red 21 moving average. This
is where the buyers should step in to position for a rally into the resistance,
while the sellers should target a break below the support to confirm a drop
into the 1.08 handle.

Upcoming Events

This week we have some important economic data on the
agenda. We begin today with the release of the US Consumer Confidence report.
On Thursday, we will see the US PCE and the latest US Jobless Claims figures.
Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the Eurozone CPI and the US ISM
Manufacturing PMI.