USDCHF Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting while dropping the tightening bias in the
  statement but adding a slight pushback against a March rate cut.
• The US CPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month with the disinflationary trend
  reversing.
• The US PPI beat
  expectations across the board by a big margin.
• The US Jobless Claims beat
  expectations with the data remaining steady.
• The latest US PMIs
  increased further from the prior month with the Manufacturing PMI beating
  expectations and the Services PMI missing.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence missed expectations across the board.
• The market now expects the first rate cut in June.

CHF

• The SNB kept interest rates unchanged at 1.75% at the last meeting stating
  that they will adjust policy if necessary to ensure that inflation remains in
  the target range.
• The latest Switzerland CPI missed expectations across the
  board by a big margin.
• The Unemployment Rate remains steady at cycle lows.
• The Manufacturing PMI rose slightly although it remains
  in contraction, while the Services PMI hold on in expansion.
• The market expects the SNB to cut
  rates in March.

USDCHF Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF has been
consolidating around the 0.88 handle with the price recently spiking downwards
and getting rejected right after. From a risk management perspective, the
buyers have a great risk to reward setup at the key trendline where we
can find the confluence with the
previous swing high, the red 21 moving average and the
50% Fibonacci retracement level.
The sellers will need the price to break below the trendline to invalidate the
bullish setup and start targeting the 0.8555 level.

USDCHF Technical Analysis –
4-hour Timeframe

On the 4-hour chart, we can see that the price has
been consolidating between the 0.8784 support and the
0.8840 resistance marked by the green box. If the price were to break again
through the support, we can expect the sellers to extend the drop into the key
trendline. Conversely, a break to the upside should lead to a rally into the
0.91 handle.

USDCHF Technical Analysis –
1-hour Timeframe

On the 1-hour chart, we can see more
closely the recent price action inside the green box. There’s not much to do
here other than waiting for a clear breakout although the traders could also
“play the range” by buying at support and selling at resistance.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we will see the US PCE and the latest US
Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Switzerland
Retail Sales and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.