EURUSD Technical Analysis | Forexlive

USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting and dropped the tightening bias in the statement.
• The US CPI beat
  expectations for the second consecutive month but it didn’t change the market’s
  pricing for rate cuts.
• The NFP report beat
  expectations on the headline number, but the unemployment rate and the average
  hourly earnings missed notably.
• The latest US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI missed expectations by a big margin
  remaining in contraction with the US ISM Services
  PMI
  following suit but holding on in expansion.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence missed expectations across the board.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

EUR

• The ECB left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting revising inflation and growth expectations
  downwards and maintaining the usual data dependent language.
• The recent Eurozone CPI beat
  expectations.
• The labour market remains historically
  tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.
• The latest Eurozone PMIs beat
  expectations on the Services side with the measure jumping back into expansion
  while the Manufacturing one missed dragged lower by Germany’s performance.
• The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD has been
consolidating between the 1.09 and 1.10 handles. From a risk management
perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the
trendline where
they will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the
trendline to invalidate the bullish setup and position for new lows.

EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the buyers
will also find the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around
the trendline for extra confluence. A break below the trendline would bode well
for the sellers as the technical trend will likely turn around. For now, the
buyers remain in control with the 1.10 handle as target. A break above that
level should see the buyers increasing their bullish bets into the 1.1145 high.

EURUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price action has been messy recently as we got stuck in a consolidation. We can
see that we have a minor support around
the 1.0930 level where the buyers will likely step in with a defined risk below
it to position for a rally into the 1.10 handle. The sellers, on the other
hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and target a drop
into the major trendline.

Upcoming Events

Today we get the US PPI, the US Retail Sales and the
US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the University
of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.