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Pound Sterling recovers against US Dollar on upbeat market sentiment

  • The Pound Sterling rebounds as market mood improves and the US Dollar faces a modest correction.
  • BoE Bailey says he doesn’t see market expectations for two or three rate cuts as unreasonable.
  • This week, the US Dollar’s moves will be driven by the core PCE price index data. 

The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its upside to 1.2650 against the US Dollar in Tuesday’s London session as the latter faces profit-taking after refreshing monthly highs. The GBP/USD pair exhibits a sound recovery even though investors expect that the Bank of England (BoE) will be more dovish this year than previously anticipated, driven by lower-than-anticipated inflation data in January and February

Two BoE policymakers, Catherine Mann and Jonathan Haskel – who voted for rate hikes in February – dropped their hawkish calls on interest rates in the March meeting. This has boosted confidence among investors that inflation in the United Kingdom is moving in the right direction. The BoE said last week, in his monetary policy statement, that the central bank is not at a point where interest rates can be reduced. However, policymakers didn’t rule out the market’s view of two or three rate cuts this year. 

This week, the market sentiment will drive the Pound Sterling’s next move as the UK economic calendar is light. Investors will keenly focus on the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be published on Good Friday. The annual Core PCE is forecasted to have grown at a steady pace of 2.8%.

Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling rises as US Dollar sees modest correction

  • The Pound Sterling rebounds to 1.2650 against the US Dollar after discovering support near 1.2580. The GBP/USD pair discovers some buying interest as the US Dollar corrects after printing a fresh monthly high. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, falls to 104.16. The USD Index corrects as expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates in the June policy meeting increase as policymakers still have faith has inflation is easing.
  • The Fed remains confident that underlying price pressures are easing. However, hot US inflation in January and February suggested that the path toward achieving price stability could be bumpier than expected. Higher rentals and service inflation have fed the stubborn US Consumer Price Index (CPI). About rent inflation, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said on Monday, “Although housing-services inflation remains quite high, the current low rate of increase on new rental leases suggests that it will continue to fall.”
  • Improved market sentiment has offered some relief to the Pound Sterling. However, the downside bias remains unabated as the Bank of England seems to be adopting a slightly dovish tone on interest rates. In the recent monetary policy meeting, no policymakers voted for a rate hike for the first time since September 2021. BoE policymaker Catherine Mann was expected to vote for a rate hike.
  • BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said in an interview with the Financial Times last week that market expectations for rate cuts this year are not unreasonable and delivered an optimistic tone on the economic prospects. Over the inflation outlook, Bailey said “We are not seeing a lot of sticky persistence”.
  • This week, trading volume could remain low due to Good Friday. Also, the United Kingdom’s economic calendar has nothing much to offer. However, the US core PCE Inflation data for February will be in focus.

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling rebounds above 1.2600

The Pound Sterling bounces back after slipping below the crucial support of 1.2600. The GBP/USD pair has been trading broadly sideways in a wider range between 1.2500 and 1.2900 for almost the last four months. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2558 will be a major cushion for the Pound Sterling bulls.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) saw a pullback move after dipping to 40.00. A bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI dips below this level.

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.