New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence falls 25% QoQ in Q1 2024
The New Zealand Business Confidence fell 25% QoQ in the first quarter (Q1) of 2024 from a 2% decline in the Q4 of 2023, the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) from the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) showed on Tuesday.
Additional takeaways
“Post-election bounce in business confidence and activity seen in the final quarter of last year was short-lived.”
“Net 24 percent of businesses in the March quarter expect a deterioration in the general economic outlook over the coming months on a seasonally adjusted basis.”
“Net 23 percent of firms reporting a decline in activity over the March quarter.”
“Overall, the results point to higher interest rates having their intended effects in dampening demand to reduce inflation pressures in the New Zealand economy.”
“Net 20 percent of financial services sector firms expect higher interest rates in a year’s time.”
Market reaction
At the press time, the NZD/USD pair was up 0.02% on the day to trade at 0.6032.
About New Zealand’s NZIER Business Confidence
The NZIER Business Confidence released by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research shows the business outlook in New Zealand. Business Confidence allows analysis of economic situation in the short term. Increasing numbers indicates increases in business investment that lead to higher levels of output. Thus, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish), while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.