EIA cuts 2024 world oil demand forecasts, sees higher US production | Forexlive

There is an ongoing forecasting war between primarily the US EIA and OPEC regarding demand growth this year. Despite strong economic growth this year (which is usually correlated with oil demand), the EIA is doubling down.

• Cuts 2024 world oil demand forecast by 480k bpd
• Cuts 2025 world oil demand forecast by 30k bpd
• Sees 2024 US oil ouput up by 280K bpd vs 260k bpd prior
• Sees 2025 US oil output up by 510k bpd vs 460k bpd prior

There’s a caveat on demand here as the 2023 estimate was boosted to 2.02 mbpd from 1.85 mbpd.

Overall, they now see demand at 102.34 and supply at 102.10 mbpd for the month of march. That’s a small deficit and something that’s certainly been reflected in recent price.

I don’t put too much stock in these forecasts but it will be worth following towards the end of the year when we find out which side badly missed the mark.

And of course, US production is super-sensitive to prices. With WTI at $85.67, it won’t be long until US drilling ramps up. Shale can add supply quickly.