Gold holds ground as traders brace for US inflation data

Gold prices firmed for a third consecutive session on Thursday, with investors awaiting U.S. inflation data due later in the day for more insights on the Federal Reserve‘s interest rate path.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,375.70 per ounce, as of 0200 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,381.30.

The dollar was on the back foot, making greenback-priced bullion more attractive for other currency holders.

Investors are waiting for the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due at 1230 GMT and the Producer Price Index (PPI) report on Friday, and expect the data to add to optimism that the Fed will be able to cut rates this year.

Any downside surprise in the CPI report could weaken the dollar and push up gold prices to the $2,400 level, said Marex analyst Edward Meir. U.S. inflation should continue to fall without a significant further rise in the unemployment rate, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said on Wednesday. “I think gold is in a new paradigm, in a higher trading range and we’re not going to see the old lows anymore. Another record high is possible this year if we get a geopolitical shock,” Meir said. Gold is considered a hedge against geopolitical turmoil and the non-yielding metal’s appeal tends to shine when interest rates are low.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank would make interest rate decisions “when and as” they were needed. On Tuesday, he told House members that “more good data” would build the case for a rate cut.

Traders are currently pricing in a 46% probability that the Fed will have cut rates by two notches by the end of December’s meeting and a 73% probability for the first cut in September, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Among other metals, spot silver inched 0.4% higher to $30.94 per ounce, platinum ticked up 0.2% to $991.80 and palladium gained 0.6% to $992.30.