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US Dollar softened ahead of the weekend after mid-tier data

  • USD slid following the University of Michigan Sentiment figures and housing market data.
  • Markets remain confident about a cut in September.
  • Greenback might continue being sensitive on data releases.

On Friday, the US Dollar (USD), as measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), experienced a decline following the release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index figures and softer-than-expected housing market data.

As per the US economic outlook, careful evaluation of the data suggests that the US economy is maintaining growth above trend. This portrays an overestimation by the market in pricing for aggressive easing as the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains data-dependant.

Daily digest market movers: Dollar down after mixed UoM data and soft housing market figures

  • The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index recorded an improved figure of 67.8 for early August, rising from July’s 66.4. It also outperformed the market expectation of 66.9.
  • Following a decrease to 60.9 from 62.7, the Current Conditions Index illustrated a decline, while the Consumer Expectations Index registered an increase to 72.1 from 68.8.
  • In contrast, Housing Starts in the US recorded a decline of 6.8% in July, down to 1.238 million units, signaling a softened housing market.
  • Additionally, Building Permits decreased by 4% after a rise of 3.9% in June.
  • Markets remain overconfident that the Fed will rush to cut, but it will all depend on incoming data.

DXY technical outlook: Consolidation trend continues, overall bearish bias remains

Technical analysis indicates a sideways trend in the DXY with indicators showing a deep consolidation in negative terrain. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 40 with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator’s red bars stabilizing, suggesting subdued price action. Despite gains noted on Thursday, the overall technical picture remains bearish. Buyers are struggling to make a significant move with the DXY index trading in the 102.50-103.30 channel.

Support Levels: 102.40, 102.20, 102.00

Resistance Levels: 103.00, 103.50, 104.00

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